Takeda Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is a Japan-based, research-driven biopharmaceutical company focused on gastrointestinal, rare disease, neuroscience, oncology and vaccines. It develops and markets branded prescription medicines globally and competes with large-cap peers including Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, AbbVie, Novartis and AstraZeneca across key therapeutic categories.
Financially, Takeda reports Revenue (ttm) of 4.48T with Gross Profit (ttm) of 2.91T, EBITDA of 1.22T and Net Income attributable to common of 136.92B. Profit Margin stands at 3.06% and Operating Margin (ttm) at 16.89%. Quarterly Revenue Growth (yoy) is -8.40% while Quarterly Earnings Growth (yoy) is 30.40%. The balance sheet shows Total Debt of 5.04T versus Total Cash of 350.01B and a Current Ratio of 1.16; Return on Assets (ttm) is 2.31% and Return on Equity (ttm) is 1.87%.
Key Points as of September 2025
- Revenue and growth: Revenue (ttm) is 4.48T; Gross Profit (ttm) is 2.91T. Quarterly Revenue Growth (yoy) is -8.40%, indicating top-line pressure despite cost discipline.
- Profitability: Profit Margin is 3.06% and Operating Margin (ttm) is 16.89%. EBITDA totals 1.22T with Net Income of 136.92B; ROA 2.31% and ROE 1.87% underscore modest returns.
- Cash flow: Operating Cash Flow (ttm) is 1.1T and Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm) is 718.93B, supporting operations and investment needs.
- Balance sheet: Total Debt is 5.04T versus Total Cash of 350.01B; Current Ratio is 1.16 and Total Debt/Equity is 73.42%.
- Share price and trading: The stock’s 52-week range is 3,916–4,670; recent close was 4,457 (Sep 22, 2025). The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are 4,405.92 and 4,292.57, respectively; Beta (5Y) is 0.27.
- Dividend profile: Forward Annual Dividend Rate is 200 with a Forward Yield of 4.49%; Trailing Dividend Rate is 196.00 (yield 4.38%). Payout Ratio is 229.19%; next ex-dividend date is 9/29/2025.
- Ownership and liquidity: Shares Outstanding are 1.58B (Float 1.56B). Institutions hold 46.71% and insiders 0.03%. Average volume is 4.49M (3-month) and 4.83M (10-day).
- Relative performance: 52-Week Change is 4.67% versus the S&P 500’s 16.76%, reflecting underperformance during the period.
- Analyst/investor tone: Metrics suggest a defensive, income-oriented profile; negative revenue momentum tempers near-term growth expectations.
Share price evolution – last 12 months
Notable headlines
Opinion
Takeda’s share price has been resilient but range-bound, with the last six months oscillating between 3,933 and 4,589 and a recent close at 4,457 as of September 22, 2025. The stock trades near its 50-day moving average of 4,405.92 and above the 200-day moving average of 4,292.57, a technically neutral posture. With a low Beta of 0.27 and a 52-Week Change of 4.67% versus the S&P 500’s 16.76%, the name continues to behave as a defensive holding rather than a momentum story. For income-focused investors, the forward yield of 4.49% is a central pillar of the thesis.
Fundamentally, the company shows solid operating discipline. Operating Margin at 16.89% and EBITDA of 1.22T indicate underlying profitability amid pricing and mix pressures, yet the top line is contracting, with Quarterly Revenue Growth (yoy) at -8.40%. Interestingly, Quarterly Earnings Growth (yoy) of 30.40% hints at cost actions, product mix benefits, or one-offs that supported the bottom line. Sustaining that earnings trajectory will likely require stabilizing revenue in core therapeutic franchises while preserving R&D intensity.
The balance sheet reveals a leveraged but manageable profile: Total Debt of 5.04T versus Total Cash of 350.01B and a Current Ratio of 1.16. Cash generation is a relative strength, with Operating Cash Flow (ttm) at 1.1T and Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm) at 718.93B. Over the next three years, continued deleveraging and disciplined capital allocation would enhance financial flexibility and reduce refinancing risk, which could support a valuation re-rating if growth returns.
The dividend is attractive but deserves monitoring. A Forward Annual Dividend Rate of 200 and Payout Ratio of 229.19% imply that earnings-based coverage is tight. Strong free cash flow helps, yet the company’s ability to defend margins and arrest revenue declines will be the swing factor for dividend durability and total returns. In our view, equity upside over a three-year horizon is most likely if revenue trends stabilize and management prioritizes balance-sheet strengthening, with the share price potentially revisiting the prior high of 4,670 under favorable conditions.
What could happen in three years? (horizon September 2025+3)
| Scenario | Three-year view |
|---|---|
| Best | Revenue stabilizes and returns to growth as core franchises hold share and new launches contribute. Margins remain firm, supported by mix and efficiency. Strong operating cash flow enables steady deleveraging and maintains the dividend policy. Investor appetite for defensive income lifts the stock, with the price testing or exceeding the prior 52-week high of 4,670. |
| Base | Top-line trends remain mixed but broadly stable. Profitability is preserved through cost control, with incremental deleveraging. Dividend is maintained with a cautious stance. The stock tracks fundamentals, trading around long-term averages with moderate total return driven largely by income. |
| Worse | Persistent revenue pressure compresses margins despite cost actions. Free cash flow softens, slowing deleveraging and raising debate around dividend flexibility. Investor sentiment weakens and the shares drift toward the lower end of the recent range, underperforming defensives. |
Projected scenarios are based on current trends and may vary based on market conditions.
Factors most likely to influence the share price
- Execution in core therapeutic areas and the pace of new product contributions relative to revenue (ttm) pressure at -8.40% yoy.
- Margin resilience versus pricing and competition, with Operating Margin (ttm) at 16.89% and Profit Margin at 3.06%.
- Balance-sheet trajectory: deleveraging versus refinancing needs given Total Debt of 5.04T, Current Ratio 1.16 and Total Cash of 350.01B.
- Dividend policy and investor income appetite amid a Forward Yield of 4.49% and Payout Ratio of 229.19%.
- Market risk appetite and rates backdrop affecting low-beta defensives (Beta 0.27) and relative performance.
Conclusion
Takeda screens as a defensive, income-oriented large-cap with solid operating capabilities and meaningful cash generation, but it faces a near-term growth challenge. Revenue (ttm) of 4.48T alongside -8.40% quarterly revenue growth (yoy) paints a picture of top-line headwinds. Offsetting this, a 16.89% Operating Margin, 1.22T EBITDA, and 1.1T operating cash flow underscore resilience. The balance sheet is leveraged, yet ongoing free cash flow of 718.93B provides room to service debt and invest. The dividend yield of 4.49% is compelling, though the 229.19% payout ratio warrants vigilance. With the stock near key moving averages and a 52-week range of 3,916–4,670, upside over the next three years likely depends on stabilizing revenue, protecting margins, and executing on deleveraging. In that base case, total returns would be anchored by dividends, with valuation upside contingent on a clearer growth inflection.
This article is not investment advice. Investing in stocks carries risks and you should conduct your own research before making any financial decisions.
