Vale S.A. heads into year‑end with steady operating momentum in iron ore, a restructuring push in nickel, and a share price that has rebounded toward its recent highs. Over the last half‑year, management combined operational discipline with strategy updates: record ore shipments, a cost‑cut plan in nickel, a renewable‑energy partnership, and new EV‑supply agreements. Trailing revenue of 213.32B underscores scale and diversification, but free cash flow has turned negative and environmental compliance remains a swing factor for capex planning. The dividend is an anchor for the equity story, with a forward yield of 9.78% keeping income investors engaged but also raising questions about sustainability through the next commodity cycle. Sector‑wide, diversified miners are balancing traditional steel value chains—still tied to China’s construction cycle—with the energy transition, which is shifting capital toward battery metals. Over the next three years, the durability of iron ore cash flows, progress on nickel cost reductions, and decarbonisation milestones will shape Vale’s earnings quality and the market’s confidence in its payout.

Petrobras enters the next three years with a split narrative: strong operating economics versus policy and governance overhangs. The company’s revenue base remains large at 85.53B (ttm), yet investors have repriced the stock amid concerns about Brazil’s fuel-price policy, capital allocation, and the durability of outsized distributions. The forward dividend yield of 15.72% underscores the appeal of cash returns, but also the market’s skepticism about sustainability through a full oil-price cycle. The past year brought softer top-line trends as global oil prices normalized and domestic pricing remained politically sensitive, while sector peers leaned on discipline and shareholder returns. For energy investors, Petrobras offers leverage to deepwater barrels and a sizable refining footprint, but the state’s strategic priorities can change payout cadence and reinvestment choices. Because the investment case hinges on governance stability and commodity conditions, the next few quarters will set the tone: if cash generation tracks capital needs and dividends remain predictable, the equity could re-rate; if policy uncertainty persists, the discount likely endures.

America Movil’s stock has re-rated in recent months, outpacing broader indices as investors price in steadier growth and dividends. The company enters this outlook with scale – trailing twelve‑month revenue of 935.68B – and visible operating momentum after a year of cost discipline and mix shift toward higher‑value customers. The share price has also benefited from improved sentiment around Latin American telecoms, where competition has eased in some markets and data usage continues to rise, though currencies remain volatile. Because the equity has already advanced 41.87%, the question for the next phase is whether cash generation can absorb network upgrades while keeping leverage in check. In our view, the setup hinges on three levers: pricing power in core markets, execution on fiber and next‑generation mobile rollouts, and the path of local interest rates that drive financing costs. For sector context, telecoms globally are prioritizing returns on invested capital over raw subscriber growth, favoring stable dividends and selective capex. That industry pivot should support America Movil’s narrative if operating discipline endures.

MercadoLibre enters the next three years with momentum in both commerce and fintech: trailing‑12‑month revenue stands at 26.19B and the most recent quarter showed 39.5% year‑over‑year revenue growth. The mix has tilted toward higher‑margin services such as payments, advertising and credit, while logistics density supports faster delivery and higher conversion. Yet earnings have lagged revenue as the company continues to invest and to manage funding costs and credit provisioning, and free cash flow has been pressured by scale‑up needs. The share price rallied mid‑year and then cooled as investors reassessed the balance between growth and profitability. In Latin America, e‑commerce and digital payments penetration still have room to rise, but the macro backdrop is volatile and foreign exchange (FX) swings can quickly move results. Because MercadoLibre straddles two secular growth curves—online retail and fintech—the next stage depends on disciplined underwriting, cost control, and steady monetization gains rather than raw volume alone. That is why the quality of growth will likely set the narrative.