
Fomento Económico Mexicano (FEMSA, NYSE: FMX) enters late 2025 balancing recovery in its share price with strategic shifts. Over the past six months, the stock swung from a May high near 106.59 to an August trough around 85.25, before rebounding to about 92.31 in mid‑September. Fundamentals remain mixed: trailing‑twelve‑month revenue is 812.89B with 6.30% quarterly revenue growth year over year, but profit margin is a slim 2.43% and quarterly earnings growth shows a sharp −78.50%. Liquidity is solid with 163.44B in cash versus 265.48B debt, and a low 0.34 beta underscores defensiveness. Recent headlines center on CEO succession planning, a reiterated Buy from HSBC, a broker average target of $105.16, and the decision to take full control of OXXO Brazil. This note outlines a three‑year outlook from today’s starting point.

Vale S.A. (VALE) enters September 2025 balancing resilient margins with softer top-line trends and a rich dividend. Trailing-12-month revenue stands at 209.6B with a 25.10% operating margin and 13.81% profit margin, supported by 71.61B in EBITDA and 46.54B in operating cash flow. The stock has recovered from $8.50 in early January to $10.67 on September 12, 2025, within a 52-week range of $8.06–$12.05; its 50- and 200-day moving averages are $10.06 and $9.59. The forward dividend yield is 11.08% (payout ratio 68.40%). Notable developments include a Q2 pro forma EBITDA update, an Indonesian nickel project investment, and mixed institutional flows. Bernstein maintains a Hold with an $11.50 target. Against a 0.76% 52-week stock change versus the S&P 500’s 16.89%, the next three years hinge on iron ore demand, nickel execution, and capital discipline.

Petrobras (PBR), Brazil’s state-controlled oil major, enters the next three years balancing rich cash returns with policy and execution risk. The company generated 85.53B in trailing-12-month revenue with a 15.19% profit margin and 26.22% operating margin, supported by 33.42B EBITDA and 35B operating cash flow. Yet quarterly revenue contracted 10.10% year over year and liquidity remains tight (current ratio 0.76) against 68.06B total debt. Shares have lagged, down 14.55% over 52 weeks and recently trading near 12.63, with the 50-day/200-day moving averages at 12.47 and 12.88. The dividend is a focal point: a forward yield of 14.42% and a 90.08% payout ratio underscore income appeal but raise sustainability questions. Operationally, ramp-up at the Búzios pre-salt field is a key tailwind, while state influence on pricing and capital allocation will likely drive valuation.

America Movil’s ADRs (AMX) have rallied toward their 52‑week high, closing at 20.34 as of the week of September 12, 2025, versus a 52‑week range of 13.10–20.47. The business shows scale and resilience: trailing‑twelve‑month revenue is 926.22B with a 20.25% operating margin and 5.56% profit margin, supported by EBITDA of 312.26B and operating cash flow of 259.66B. Dividend appeal remains intact with a forward yield of 2.72% on a 0.55 payout and a 58.37% payout ratio. Leverage is meaningful (total debt 768.52B; debt/equity 172.75%) and liquidity is tighter (current ratio 0.75), making execution and funding discipline key. Institutional activity has ticked up, while a recent average price target of 18.12 sits below the current quote, framing a debate between momentum and valuation. This three‑year outlook weighs growth prospects, capital returns, and balance‑sheet risk.

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